RUSSIA’S POSITION IN WORLD POLITICS IN 2016: FOREIGN STRATEGY CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

Analysis of Russia's 2016 foreign policy: priorities, responses to Ukraine and Syria crises, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and global challenges, showcasing Moscow's efforts to secure stability and influence.

Abstract

In politics, conflicts emerge from a change in the balance of power and destruction of the status quo. The collapse of regimes in Ukraine and in the Middle East created low-pressure zones, drawing neighboring countries into the regional storm. Having found itself in a hurricane, Moscow made its choice. It could have lowered its sails and followed the wind, but it preferred to keep to its course even if it meant sailing against the wind. Moscow’s offensive had its achievements: Russia is holding the initiative and managing crises wisely for its own purposes. However, in recent months Russia missed at least two sensitive blows. The first was miscalculating the consequences of the public protests in Kyiv in late 2014; the second was underestimating the risk of a Turkish military provocation during Russia’s Syrian operation. However cautious Moscow is in its foreign policy, blind spots trouble every experienced operator. Modern Russia is a status quo player focused predominantly on its nearest neighbors. Neither Russian security priorities nor its resources can compel Moscow to project power beyond one thousand kilometers from its borders. When Russia sees the security environment around it as certain and predictable, it feels no need for intervention. But when uncertainty arises and a crisis occurs, Russia responds forcefully. Understanding how Russia prioritizes its security challenges and how it assesses the security situation on its borders is a start to clearing up much of the uncertainty in Eurasia today. This analysis focuses on critical situations that may develop this year into vital challenges to Russian interests, triggering a response from Moscow.

CATCHING A TREND

A lot has been said recently about the unpredictability of Russian foreign policy and uncertainty that emanates from it. In reality, Moscow’s interests are quite limited and focused on its near abroad. To understand how Russia prioritizes its security challenges and how it assesses the security situation on its borders takes us halfway to battling uncertainty in Eurasia. This analysis focuses on critical situations that may develop this year into vital challenges to Russian interests and trigger Moscow’s response.

It has been two years since Russia found itself in the middle of a geopolitical tornado. Could it deliberately stay out of it? We believe not. In nature, wind emerges because of differential pressures between regions. Similarly, in politics conflicts emerge with a change in balance of power and destruction of a status quo. Regime collapses in Ukraine and in the Middle East created a low-pressure zone that draws neighboring countries into the regional storm. Having found itself in a hurricane spiral, Moscow made its choice. It could have lowered the sails and followed the winds, yet it preferred to keep to its course even though it meant sailing against the wind.

Moscow’s offensive has its accomplishments – Russia is holding the initiative and managing crises wisely for its own purposes. However, in recent months Russia missed at least two sensitive blows. The first one was the miscalculation of the consequences of the public protests in Kyiv in winter 2014, the second was the misperception of risks of a military provocation from Turkey in the Russian Syrian operation. However cautious Moscow is in its foreign policy, blind spots trouble every experienced operator.

In its worldview, Russia is a great power chauvinist and a hard power athlete. Modern Russia is a status quo player focused predominantly on its nearest neighborhood. Neither Russian security priorities, nor its resources can compel Moscow to project power beyond 1000 kilometers from its borders. The basics of Russian security strategy are simple: keep the neighboring belt stable, NATO weak, China close, and the US focused elsewhere. Russia supports and abides international rules, but only until a third party ruins the status quo and harms Moscow’s security interests. When Russia sees the security environment around it as certain and predictable it feels no need for intervention. But when uncertainty arises and a crisis unleashes, Russia responds forcefully.